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Americas1.
Bolivia
- Narcotics
production and trafficking and related violence; clashes continue between the government and coca farmers over the forced eradication of the illegal crop used to produce cocaine, civil unrest rises while the economic plight worsens in South America’s poorest country. 2.
Colombia
- Drug War; FARC and ELN rebel groups against government forces and paramilitaries; hostage / kidnapping; peace process failed at the beginning of the year; reports that the Irish Republican Army is training FARC guerillas; spillover into Venezuela and Panama 3.
Haiti
- Violent
clashes between anti-government protestors and supporters of Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide paralyze the already fragile economy; narcotics trafficking and related violence; unchecked mob violence. 4.
Peru
- Bomb
explosion outside US Embassy to deter President Bush from visit in March, state of emergency declared and army sent to violent protests regarding country's decision to privatize electric company; reports that Navy has for years "tortured" recruits; Maoist rebels killing police. 5. Venezuela - Attempted coup; economic crisis sees Bolivar plummet against the US dollar; government forced shutdown of media; violent protests. Europe and Russia6.
Georgia
- Georgian
government has very little control of Pnski and is full of Chechnyan terrorists; Russia is fighting to place its own forces in the area to clean up the terrorists, which has led to a continuous clash between Russia and Georgia. 7.
Kosovo
- Narcotics
trafficking and related violence; human trafficking, drug and alcohol smuggling and related violence; continual inter-ethnic violence; unchecked organized crime. 8.
Russia
- Violence
with separatists from Chechnya continues; violence has spilled over into Georgia; Chechnyans have stepped up violent acts in Moscow and in other parts of the country. 9.
Spain
- ETA
more active, Was founded with the aim of creating an independent homeland in Spain's Basque region; many terrorists acts in the country; low-grade dispute with Morocco over Perejill Island; Batsuana seen as ETA's political arm 10.
Turkey
- Residual violence from Kurdish separatists and other militant groups such as the Turkish Worker’s and Peasant’s Liberation Army;
vacillating tensions with Greece over the status of Cyprus and the Turkish Northern Republic of Cyprus as discussion over the island’s candidacy for the European Union advance. 11. United Kingdom - Residual Violence in Northern Ireland; bombings continue and the British government re-established its authority in the province suspending the so-called home-rule where local Catholics and Protestants share power in the Northern Ireland Assembly.
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| 1)
|
6)
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| 2) Congo | 7)
Solomon Islands |
| 3)
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8
)
South Africa |
| 4)
|
10) Tunsia |
| 5)
|
11)
Venezuela |
Countries from the 2001 Conflict List Removed for 2002
| 1) Cameroon | 9) Papua New Guinea |
| 2) Comoros | 10)
Sierra Leone |
| 3) Former Yugoslov Republic of Macedonia | 11)
Sri Lanka |
| 4)
|
12) Tajikistan |
| 5) Guinea - Bissau | 13) Tanzania |
| 6) Jamaica | 14) Thailand |
| 7) Malawi | 15)
United States of America |
| 8) Malaysia | 16) Yugoslavia |
The
United States Army's Leadership Guide has a three-step problem solving process - 1) Recognize the problem, 2) Make an estimate of the
situation, and 3) Take action. This World Conflict Report is intended to address the first, most basic step in this process - determining the level and causes of conflict. This report is a threat assessment, which we hope that policy makers will use to take action.
The criteria for inclusion on the conflict list are the level of political, social, economic and military disruption caused by the relevant conflict. This is inherently a subjective measure, thus, standardized criteria such as 1,000 deaths per conflict are not applied. Simply put, 1,000 deaths signify a lot more conflict in Nepal than in China. Understanding that political, social, economic and military problems interact and feed off of each other is critical to addressing conflict. For example, in 1992 the Center for Defense Information issued a report entitled “World at War 1992 - Fewer Wars, No Danger to the United States.” In it, CDI claimed that wars were on the decline around the world, and that as a result U.S. defense spending was “tragically high.” This shortsighted prediction was based on a uni-dimensional reading of the situation. The National Defense Council Foundation (NDCF) World Conflict Report is intended to do better.
There were 59 conflicts in 2001 & 53 in 2002.
The patterns in the conflict are telling. Generally speaking, the distribution of conflicts around the world has stayed mostly stable (see charts below). As has been true for the duration of NDCF studies, the most conflict-prone areas are in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, which together account for nearly half of all conflicts. The most significant change in geographical distribution is the rise of conflict in South/Central Asia, which has gone from 6 conflicts in 1997 to 10 in 2000. The rise of conflict in this region is primarily due to the spillover of the war in Afghanistan, which acts like a cancer on the region, spreading to the weakest states and destabilizing even the strongest.
While the distribution of conflicts by region has been stable, in recent years there has been a sea change in the type of conflict. While the United States military is primarily geared to fight a medium-intensity international conflict with fronts, tanks, artillery, etc., a growing number of conflicts are low-intensity civil. Since low-intensity conflicts are fought primarily with small arms and using guerilla forces and terrorism, the current U.S. force structure is unprepared to meet this growing challenge.
Another important pattern is the growth of medium-intensity international conflicts. When the United States repelled the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in the early 1990s, it set a strong precedent that invasion was no longer an appropriate tool of diplomacy. As a result, unstable countries were far less likely to invade their neighbors, although low-intensity conflicts persisted. However, the Clinton administration had failed to maintain the precedent set in the Gulf War, and as the 1990s progressed medium-intensity conflicts began to grow. President Bush must now have to cope with an international system where invasion is again a cogent instrument of policy. The pattern - from zero medium-intensity international conflicts just three years ago; neglect has fostered the six current conflicts.
Of the 53 conflicts surveyed in 2002, two stand out for their peculiarities. The stupidest conflict in this year’s count is Nigeria Early in the year, Nigeria was experiencing widespread problems with religious turmoil & violent crime.
While Nigeria wins the title of the stupidest conflict, the title of the most dangerous conflict goes to Iraq. This because the use of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical weapons is almost a forgone conclusion.
Instability Indicators reflect NDCF’s analysis of which countries will be conflict areas in 2001. Using data such as the infant mortality rate, level of military influence on the government, and exposure to international trade, we generated a formula that gives each country a 0 to 100 rating for instability. The indicator is essentially our forecast for the conflict’s temperature - at 100, the conflict boils, while at 0 it is nonexistent. The data is broken down into political, military, economic and social instability ratings that are totaled to reach the final indicator. The
99.105 that is ascribed to Afghanistan is the highest total ever for a single country, meaning that Afghanistan will be more unstable than any other country has been for three years.
The
National Defense Council Foundation compiles this list annually after
reviewing potential conflicts in approximately 193 countries.
NDCF is a non-profit, 501(c)(3) non-partisan think tank that
studies defense and foreign affairs.
NDCF was established in 1978 and is located in Alexandria,
Virginia. In addition to
academic analysis, NDCF runs relief operations in conjunction with
fact-finding missions in conflict areas.
To date, NDCF has delivered over 197 tons of medicine and food
worldwide. The NDCF intern
program has graduated over 150 interns educated in patterns in conflict. The
research for this report was compiled over the course of 2002. Final
editing and revisions were done by Major F. Andy Messing, Jr USAR
(Ret.), Special Forces, executive director of NDCF .
Major Messing has been to 27 conflicts worldwide and is
considered a leading expert on Special Operations and Low-Intensity
Conflict. This material is
(C) 2002 The National Defense Council Foundation. For
Further Information, Contact: Major
F. Andy Messing The
National Defense Council Foundation 1220
King Street Suite
230 Alexandria,
VA 22314 Tel:
(703) 836-3443 Fax:
(703) 836-5402 E-Mail
ndcf@erols.com Website:
www.ndcf.orgConclusions
for 2002
While
the number of conflicts has gone down, the potential intensity has gone up dramatically.
Accordingly, it is fairly clear that because of the lack of capability and responsibility of the former Soviet Union, now Russia, the proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD’s) has resulted in a new form of threat NDCF calls the “Invisible WMD’s”, which our Intelligence sources will not admit to, the hostile country will not admit to, hence the public can not understand, which alters the equations of Politics, thereby impeding conflict resolution
dramatically. Iraq and North Korea are examples of this new phenomenon. Sadly, in their future overt use, caused by acts of revenge or desperation, over-reaction by our allies or us, they will be a cascading feature. This could result in catastrophic consequences. The only effective counter-measure is enhanced Intelligence with early-on / pre-emeptive
Special Operations & Low-Intensity Conflict solutions. These range from Special Operations Teams selectively targeting individuals or groups, thoroughly vetted assassinations, organizing Guerrilla movements as a counter-poise to hostile elements, Psychological Operations, among other techniques. Exorcising cancerous pockets, rather than killing an entire body is the object. Asymmetric warfare has changed the world.
Adjusting our National Security Modis Operendi to take this into account is a must.
The
National Defense Council Foundation