See also: 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002
  WORLD CONFLICT LIST 1997

1) Afghanistan - Continued civil war and drug trafficking
2) Albania - Political violence, terrorism, voter intimidation by armed gangs

3) Algeria - Increasing anti-government and anti-foreigner violence by the Armed Islamic Group (GIA), Algerian Jihad Islamic Front, and others

4) Angola - Continued civil war (UNITA); violence against foreigners

5) Bangladesh - Continuing unrest in Chittagong region, labor and political violence

6) Bosnia-Herzegovina / Croatia - Ethnic violence and terrorism by Serb, Croatian and Muslim nationalists; attacks on peacekeeping forces

7) Brazil - Drug violence and criminal activity, particularly in major urban areas

8) Burma - Karen and Shan insurgencies, drug trafficking, civil unrest

9) Burundi - Hutu-Tutsi violence, border conflict with Tanzania

10) Cambodia - Khmer Rouge insurgency, coup

11) Central African Republic - Attempted coup, French intervention

12) China - Ethnic violence in Xinjiang Uighur, separtist movements in Tibet, drug trafficking, border disputes

13) Colombia - ELN and FARC guerrilla insurgencies, drug trafficking

14) Comoros - Separtist violence in Anjouan

15) Congo (Brazzaville) - Civil war, incursions in Angola

16) Congo (Kinshasa) - Civil war, anti-French violence, slaughter of Rwandan refugees

17) Cuba - Political violence, terrorism, and drug violence

18) Cyprus - Greek vs. Turkish violence, arms build-up by both sides

19) Ecuador - Border conflict with Peru, continued Drug trafficking

20) Egypt - Anti-government and anti-foreigner violence by the Muslim Brotherhod

21) El Salvador - Drug trafficking, increased criminal activity by former combattants

22) Eritrea - Cross-border incursions into Sudan

23) Ethiopia - Nationwide bombings by Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)

24) French Guinea - Rioting, political violence

25) Greece - Anti-Establishment Struggle bombing campaign

26) Haiti - Political violence and increased drug trafficking

27) India - Insurgency in eastern provinces, border conflicts with Pakistan, separtist movements in Sikh and Kashmiri areas

28) Indonesia - Separtist violence in East Timor, ethnic and political violence

29) Iran - Ethnic, political and religious violence, particularly in Qom area; drug violence, supporters of international terrorism

30) Iraq - Armed incursions by Turkey and Iran, Kurdish insurgency, attempted military coup, attacks on UN personnel

31) Ireland (including Northern Ireland) - Continuing sectarian violence, IRA and PIRA terrorism

32) Israel - Fundamentalist terrorism by Hamas and other groups, instability in West Bank and Gaza

33) Italy - Northern League separtist violence, widespread mafia activity

34) Kenya - Political violence, mass protests violently suppressed, and increasing crime

35) Laos - Associated violence with drug production and trafficking, minor anti-government guerrilla activity

36) Lebanon - Rising conflicts between Israeli troops, Hezbollah, and others

37) Liberia - Abductions of opposition leaders, continuing civil war

38) Libya - Sponsor of international terrorism, Fighting Islamic Group (FIG) insurgency

39) Mexico - Increasing drug violence, ethnic conflict in Chiapas and Guerrero

40) Nicaragua - Associated violence with drug trafficking, low-level political violence and increasing criminal activity

41) Nigeria - Political and ethnic conflicts, drug trafficking, intervention in Sierra Leone

42) North Korea - Conflict with South, unrest due to famine

43) Pakistan - Widespread sectarian violence, particularly by the Mohajir Quami Movement (MQM); drug trafficking, border conflicts with India

44) Panama - Incursions by Colombian rebels, associated violence with drug trafficking

45) Papua New Guinea - Secessionist movement in Bougainville Island

46) Peru - Tupac Amaru and Sendero Luminoso insurgencies, drug trafficking, border conflict with Ecuador

47) Philippines - Border dispute in South China Sea, flare-up of Muslim and Marxist insurgencies

48) Russia - Repeated terrortist attacks by neo-communists, ethinic violence in Chechnya, associated violence with major organized crime and drug trafficking; government sponsors PKK terrorists

49) Rwanda - Escalating violence on repatriated refugees, attacks on UN personnel

50) Senegal - Separtist movement in Casamance province

51) Sierra Leone - Repeated coup attempts, attacks on UN personnel, civil war, intervention by Nigeria

52) Somalia - Continued Clan warfare and ethnic violence

53) South Africa - Race riots, banditry and increased criminal activity

54) South Korea - Violent labor and student demonstrations, conflict with North Korea

55) Spain - Increased Basque (ETA) terrorism

56) Sri Lanka - Tamil Tiger insurgency

57) Sudan - Border incursions; separtist and ethnic violence in south; sponsors of international terrorism

58) Syria - Sponsors of international terrorism, political violence

59) Tajikistan - Associated violence with drug trafficking, political, religious and ethnic conflicts

60) Tanzania - Border conflict with Burundi

61) Thailand - Associated violence with drug trafficking, border incursions from Burma

62) Turkey - PKK violence, incursions into Iraq, government support of Chechen separtists in Russia

63) Uganda - Lord's Resistance Army and other insurgencies, incursions into Sudan

64) United Kingdom - Continued IRA and PIRA terrorism

65) Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) - Internal political strife, manifested in police beatings of demonstrators

66) Zambia - Attempted coup

67) Zimbabwe - Massive violence in response to tax increases

New Countries on the 1997 List

 

1) Albania
2) Brazil
3) Comoros
4) Congo (Brazzaville)
5) French Guinea
6) Greece
7) Italy
8) Laos
9) Philippines
10) Senegal
11) Tanzania
12) Zambia
13) Congo (Kinshasa)
14) Zimbabwe


Countries from 1996 Removed for 1997 List

 

1) Armenia - Reduced tensions with Azerbaijan
2) Azerbaijan - Reduced tensions with Armenia
3) Bahrain - Reduced Islamic insurgency
4) Cameroon - No major incidents with Nigeria
5) Djubuti - No major incidents with Eritrea
6) Guatemala - Consolidation of peace accords and democracy
7) Niger - Democratization and reconciliation of opposed factions
8) United States - Violence at the U.S.-Mexican border continues, as does drug smuggling and associated violence... However, crime rates are down. Increased Militia and and organized crime activity; either represents a threat to the government
9) France
10) Saudi Arabia


The National Defense Council Foundation compiles this list annually after reviewing conflicts in over 190 countries. The criteria for selection is based on the level of disruption of the socio-economic, political, and security fabric of each country caused by both internal and external conflict which the country is associated with. Accordingly, standardized criteria by the Swedish -- such as 1,000 deaths per country -- cannot be applied because of issues such as the demographics of each country and even location.

For 1997, the conflict count was at 67, a bump-up from the total of 64 last year. Other totals are 71 in 1995, 70 in 1994, 62 in 1993 and 35 in 1989. The largest cause of this year's total was the continued uni-polar and vascilating leadership by the United States, illogical and selective interventions by various groups (to include the U.N.) and proliferation issues. There is also a rising tide of drug trafficking activity in many areas of the world, particularly in the Caribbean.

This year, NDCF has added a more detailed component to the report -- instability indicators. These indicators are based on data such as infant mortality rate, income distribution, and the role of the military in the government. The data have been grouped into indicators for economic, social, political and security stability. The report contains the states with the highest instability rates, which means that these are the states most likely to implode or explode over the next year. A data chart on some of the states has been added for comparison and illustration.

Sample Calculation... Instability Indicators

Country

Political

Economic

Social

Military

Total

North Korea

10

9

4

35

58

Iraq

10

9

4

19

42

Somalia

9

9

8

15

41

Afghanistan

10

9

8

15

39

Sudan

9

8

7

11

35

Congo (Kinshasa)

9

10

9

6.5

34.5

Rwanda

8

6

8

12

34

Burundi

9

9

8

9

34

Libya

10

8

4

11.1

33.1

Laos

10

4

6

13.1

33.1


Indicators for Other Countries

Country

Political

Economic

Social

Military

Total

Brazil

4

4

1

3.1

12.1

China

10

5

2

15.6

32.6

Iran

9

8

2

9

28

Russia

7

7

0

9

25

United States

0

1

1

4.8

6.8


The research for this report was compiled over the duration of 1997. The primary research was done by Douglas Jacobson and William D. Shingleton, who are both researchers at the NDCF. The report was reviewed and edited by Major F. Andy Messing, USAR (Ret.), Special Forces, Executive Director of the NDCF. Major Messing has been to 27 conflicts world-wide and is considered a leading expert on Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict. This material is copyrighted (C) 1997 National Defense Council Foundation.


For further information on the National Defense Council Foundation, please contact Major F. Andy Messing, Jr.:

The National Defense Council Foundation
1220 King St. Suite #1
Alexandria, VA 22314
Telephone: (703) 836-3443
Fax: (703) 836-5402
Email:  NDCF@erols.com